The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

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Several times in a day we make decisions, some life changing and others un-affecting.

All these decisions that we make are not always objective but are to some degree diluted by Psychology aspects.

Charlie Munger the Vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and best known as Business magnate Warren Buffett’s ‘partner’ lists these factors to influence The Psychology of Human Misjudgment

Psychological denial: Not accepting something that has happened.

– Agency cost: Blindly trusting an agent (Doctor, Lawyer, Sales reps) on their words learn basics of agents trade

– Consistency & commitment tendency: Shutting to others idea after you have made a decision

– Pavlonian association: Association of self with good things, subconsciously. For example Accenture snap their ties with a leading sports start after his personal troubles surfaced in media reports. One tendency is costiler is better

– Reciprocation tendency: Tendency to reciprocate and do things when the expectation is lowered. Example is asking a kid to run for 10km and when kid denies to do so you lower the expectation to say 7km while the kid on normal situation would have only run 5km

– Social proof: You look at others action to decide on your action. When everyone drinks green tea you also choose to do so and believe that it is good because others are doing it

– Contrast-caused distortion: Over-influenced by contrast.

– Over-influence by authority: When you do not challenge the authority even though they are wrong and it will affect you

– Deprival super-reaction syndrome: When you push back a change because you feel you lose something that you have today

– Envy Jealousy: a feeling of discontented or resentful longing aroused by someone else’s possessions, qualities, or luck.

– Chemical dependency: Addiction to chemicals and making decision under the influence of addicted chemicals

– Misgambling compulsion: Staged ‘just-miss’ situations that cause you to play again in order that you will succeed this time

– Liking distortion: Not liking someone who does who doesn’t believe you

– Stress induced mental changes: Reversal of tendencies after stress

– Other normal limitations of sensation, memory, cognition & knowledge

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Sleep paralysis

I have been a patient of Sleep paralysis. It is a medical condition where I wake up in sleep but am paralyzed to move. Let alone move, I cannot even talk. When I wake up, I see a small boy standing and smiling at me. It is the same boy every night. He is drenched in water. It freaks me out when I see him. I have tried several times to talk to him  but in vain. My doctor says it is common in patients suffering from sleep paralysis that you hallucinate seeing kids smiling at you sometimes sitting on your chest.
Only difference in my case is that the kid of my dream is someone I know. It is me. ‘Me’ of my childhood.
I did not believe in life after death. But once, I met this fortune teller. He said he can tell us about our previous life.  He said in my previous incarnation I was drowned to death and I was a fearless kid who smiled even in death

Men in uniform

It took her five years to come out of the shock; her husband meant everything to her. Whenever she saw him in uniform she felt proud. Same was the feeling when she saw him in the coffin. 15 years have gone by and it is her son’s turn. After all patriotism is in his blood.

To kill or to let live

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“We have no rights to kill anyone. Even the terrorist who is convicted of the most heinous act deserves to live, we should not kill any one, ban capital punishment. The society should not be murderers.”
The speech from human rights activist Girish was followed by a roaring applause. Madhuri was his stanch supporter. They had been fighting for a cause for years now.

Hafiz Saeed , was convicted guilty of several deadly attacks on the army. His supporters though hailed him of messiah of their freedom struggle.

As a token of remembrance Girish had framed the supreme courts ruling on ban death sentence and given to it to all his supporters. Madhuri displayed the memorabilia with a sense of achievement. Hafiz was the first beneficiary of the struggle Girish and his supporters started 2 years ago. Hafiz’s death penalty was culminated to life sentence.

It was the first school outing for Alia, she was every excited. She was very anxious to return home and tell her mother how good the outing was. Madhuri eagerly waited for Alia to come home.
It was already late, Alia was never alone for such long time.

The kids in the bus were crying loud. The masked gunman had no sympathy for their cry. Their motive was clear, ‘release Hafiz’

The Home minister was under immense pressure. He was against releasing Hafiz in exchange of the kids.There was a outcry about the whole school bus hijack. The gunmen were running out of time, they decided to send a strong message to the government to act quickly. The message was in the form of an innocent’s death.
The whole hijack drama ended with Hafiz being released. News channels aired scenes of parents hailing the government of quick action. News channels also aired clippings, of Hafiz reunion with his daughter, that was released by his organization.

Madhuri collapsed when the corpse of Alia arrived wrapped in white cloth.The reflection of the body in the memorabilia, sparked debate in everyone’s mind ‘To kill or to let live’

Dislikes

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Dec13-9AM: Guys, Let’s find him and this time we will burn him

Dec13-2AM: Sir, I have a spicy news, a body
is missing, the grave looks dug out

Dec12-11AM: You were an adorable friend, John,
RIP

Jul20-9PM: I hate this smell of mud. When I
am dead, swear you’ll burn my body and not bury

The Toy

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Bhagyesh and I were travelling to Mumbai. Bhagyesh always loved knowing new people, Knowing new cultures, their lifestyles. After our work Bhagyesh said, let’s go and visit a residential colony. That’s the heart of the city. That’s where the real life is.

I hesitated; I was scared if the city is safe for the strangers. Bhagyesh just picked up his Swiss knife and said. “This will do, we are safe”.

In a signal a girl approached us and asked us if we buy any toy from her. For what I know about Bhagyesh he always liked helping the poor. He also was a kid when it came to toys. He bought a fancy looking toy car.

We continued until we reached the Sahayadri colony. The colony was buzzing with life. We went through the small streets.

There was a little girl looking and smiling at all the passer by. Bhagyesh got too attracted to the innocent smile. He said, “Here; take it” he generously gave away his new toy. We continued our ‘exploration’ around the colony. Suddenly I realized that Bhagyesh wasn’t walking with me anymore. I turned around looking for him.

Suddenly there was a loud cry from a woman. Everyone around there, shocked, started running to where the cry came from.

What I saw there was a horror scene of my life. The little girl lay there, with her throat cut. Bhagyesh’s Swiss knife blade was dripping with blood. He muttered only two words, “toy’s mine”.

The girl’s grandmother stood there with the lemon in hand and a black doll with a cut throat.

Thread unsafe HashMap

Encountered a problem that while using a copy constructor of  java.util.HashMap I got this error

Exception in thread "Thread-0" java.util.ConcurrentModificationException
at java.util.LinkedHashMap$LinkedHashIterator.nextEntry(LinkedHashMap.java:394)
at java.util.LinkedHashMap$EntryIterator.next(LinkedHashMap.java:413)
at java.util.LinkedHashMap$EntryIterator.next(LinkedHashMap.java:412)
at java.util.HashMap.putAllForCreate(HashMap.java:558)
at java.util.HashMap.<init>(HashMap.java:298)
at ...

My code that caused this exception was a one liner
 Map<String,String> cp = new HashMap<String,String>(m);
Culprit here is the class variable m. It had so happened that while I was trying to create a copy instance of this class variable some other thread had changed it.
Here's a simple runnable code to reproduce this issue

import java.util.*;

public class ThreadUnsafeHashMap {
 public static void main(String[] args) {
 Thread manipulate = null;
 try {
 final Map<String, String> m = Collections.synchronizedMap(new LinkedHashMap<String, String>() {
 protected boolean removeEldestEntry(Map.Entry<String, String> eldest) {
 if (size() > 1000) {
 clear();
 }
 return false;

 }
 });

 manipulate = new MapManipulate(m);

 manipulate.start();

 while (true) {
 m.put(UUID.randomUUID().toString(), UUID.randomUUID().toString());
 }
 } finally {
 if (manipulate != null)
 manipulate.interrupt();
 }
 }

 private static class MapManipulate extends Thread {
 final Map m;

 public MapManipulate(Map m) {
 this.m = m;
 }

 @Override
 public synchronized void run() {
 while (true) {
 Map<String, String> cp= new HashMap<String, String>(m);//thread unsafe
 System.out.println(cp);
 try {
 Thread.sleep(1000);
 } catch (InterruptedException e) {
 e.printStackTrace();
 }
 }
 }
 }
}
And how to correct it?

@Override
 public synchronized void run() {
   while (true) {
     Map<String,String> cp
synchronised(m){
   cp = new HashMap<String,String>(m);//thread safe
}
     System.out.println(cp);
     try {
       Thread.sleep(1000);
     } catch (InterruptedException e) {
         e.printStackTrace();
     }
  }
 }
 }
}